Visualizing the Mid Season Resurgence of Russell Westbrook

There has been a lot made of the early season struggles with Russell Westbrook and the Houston Rockets. The Rockets traded Chris Paul, and multiple drafts picks for Russell Westbrook on July 11th, 2019, in hopes of upgrading their superstar duo. They were attempting to better align their championship window with James Harden’s prime. Westbrook was three years younger than Paul, and the same age as Harden, so there was a logical argument to make the trade. However, Westbrook was one of the most polarizing players in the NBA. He had just come off his third straight season averaging a triple double, and had a major decline in his efficiency. He most notably was shooting 29% on three-pointers, and 66% on foul shots. Paul fit with Houston’s strategy of raining 3-pointers far more than Westbrook did, so there was going to be a steep learning curve.

Up until the start of the new year, Westbrook was playing at an all-time inefficient pace and far worse than Chris Paul. Westbrook was shooting 4.9 3-pointers per game at 23%, and he was also shooting 21.2 Field Goals per game at 45.4% EFG. To put his 3-point percentage into perspective, it would be the worst percentage in the past 20 years for all players shooting over three 3-pointers per game.

But it appears that once the season hit January 1st, Westbrook made a cautious effort to change his game and his shot selection. He improved his Effective Field Goal to 54.2% from January to March, which is nearly 10% better than the months prior to January. The graph below displays Westbrook’s average shot distance per game, with a rolling average line through it.

There appears to be an inflection point on January 1st, where the average shot distance per game significantly changed. He decided he was going to take fewer threes and try to get into the Restricted Area. In a five-game stretch from January 18th — 26th, Westbrook only attempted two 3-pointers; this was the lowest amount he had ever taken over a five-game stretch since the 2010–11 season.

As seen in the graph below, in the new year, he is taking fewer threes and mid-range shots and is taking more shots in the paint and the Restricted Area.

From the start of this NBA season to January 1st, 19% of Westbrook’s shots were above the break 3-pointers. Since then, less than 7% of his shots were above the break 3-pointers.

Shots in the paint (excluding Restricted Area) increased from 11% to 16%.

He virtually stopped taking corner 3-pointers altogether, combining for a total of 2% of his shots.

And finally, his shots in the Restricted Area increased from 41% to 53%. He was shooting 12.6 Field Goal attempts per game in 2020 from the restricted area, which ranked second in the league. Westbrook is only 6’3” and was creating shot attempts in the Restricted Area at an extremely high rate. The rest of the top ranked players are forwards 6’6” and taller.

Comparing games up until January 1st, vs after January 1st, this is Westbrook’s overall shot charts.

On top of taking fewer threes and more shots in the paint and Restricted Area, the paint shots (yellow) appear to be quite a bit closer to the basket. His Field Goal percentage in the paint has decreased by 2%, however, I expect it to increase considering his paint shot selection has improved.

Looking at his shot distribution by distance, compared to the league, it is a similar story. This graph shows the percentage of Westbrook’s shots at each distance (i.e. what percentage of his shots were taken from two feet vs five feet, etc.).

As seen from the red line, Westbrook, since January, is taking nearly double the number of shots at the 1–2 feet range than the NBA average (green line). Conversely, on shots over 24 feet, he is taking a fraction of the threes that the rest of the NBA is taking.

On top of Westbrook changing his shot selection, his efficiency has also improved quite substantially. Each point is an NBA player’s Field Goal percentage at that given shot type.

His Field Goal percentage in the Restricted Area has increased from 58% FG to 64% FG. Quite impressive considering he is taking 12% more shots in the Restricted Area. He has also managed to increase his mid-range Field Goal percentage from 37% to 48%. Shooting 48% from the mid-range is in the top quartile of the NBA. This increase could be attributed to having more space to shoot because defenders are so focused on him attacking the basket.

Although it is clear Westbrook has improved his game, it has not necessarily translated to the Houston Rockets being a better team. The Rockets Net Rating from the start of the NBA season to January 1st was 4.9; comparatively, their Net Rating from January 1st until March 11th was 1.8.

Can their poor Net Rating strictly be attributed to worse defense?

No, their offense over the same span was also down. The Rockets’ Offensive Rating for games in 2019 was 114.0, and for games in 2020, it was 112.6.

Did their win percentage improve?

No, their win percentage was 68% on January 1st, and it now sits at 63%.

What does Clint Capela have to do with this? (Traded on February 5)

While Capela was on the floor, the Rockets offensive rating decreased by over 4 points, so we should have seen an increase in their offense once he stopped playing.

A potential reason for the Rockets’ worsened performance could be because Westbrook is taking the ball out of James Harden’s hands. Harden’s Usage has fallen from 37.0 to 34.3, while Westbrook’s has risen from 31.4 to 35.0. Although other factors contribute to winning, it should concern the Rockets that while Russell Westbrook had his best stretch of basketball in years, their team’s play and net rating has declined.

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